“It was a huge relief for retailers, their customers and the nation’s economy that the strike was short lived,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “It will take the affected ports a couple of weeks to recover, but we can rest assured that all ports across the country will be working hard to meet demand, and no impact on the holiday shopping season is expected. The strike wasn’t without impacts – retailers who brought in cargo early or shifted delivery to the West Coast face added warehousing and transportation costs. But the priority now is for both parties to negotiate in good faith and reach a long-term contract before the short-term extension ends in mid-January. We don’t want to face a disruption like this all over again.”

Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association went on strike at East and Gulf Coast container ports on October 1 after their contract with the U.S. Maritime Alliance expired. But the strike lasted only three days, ending after a tentative agreement was reached on a wage increase and a short-term contract extension until January 15. The move came after NRF led a coalition in asking President Biden to use “any and all authority” to end the strike.

Ports handled unusually large volumes of cargo beginning this spring as importers brought in goods early because of the potential for a strike and shifted a number of vessels to the West Coast, where dockworkers are represented by a different union.

“The surge in imports over the past few months has clearly been the result of contingency imports by wholesalers, retailers and industrial companies in anticipation of the East and Gulf Coast port strike rather than a sudden increase in demand,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “We may see some short-term congestion on the West Coast but nothing significant, and East Coast delays should be limited.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.34 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in August, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have yet to report final data. That was up 0.9% from July and up 19.3% year over year for the highest volume since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022.

Ports have not yet reported September’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.29 million TEU, up 12.9% year over year. October is forecast at 2.12 million TEU, up 3.1% year over year. That is slightly higher than the 2.08 million TEU forecast for October a month ago, and the strike did not appear to affect national totals.

November is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, up 0.9% year over year, and December at 1.88 million TEU, up 0.2%. That would bring 2024 to 24.9 million TEU, up 12.1% from 2023. January 2025 is forecast at 1.98 million TEU, up 0.8% year over year, and February 2025 is forecast at 1.74 million TEU, down 11.2% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories.

The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.

Posted: October 8, 2024

Source: The National Retail Federation (NRF)

“Lulls between supply chain challenges seldom last long, and importers are currently looking at issues including high shipping rates, unresolved port labor negotiations and continuing capacity and congestion issues from the ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Despite all of that, we’re experiencing the strongest surge in volume we’ve seen in two years, and that’s a good sign for what retailers expect in sales. Consumers can rest assured that retailers will be well-stocked and ready to meet demand as we head into the back-to-school and holiday seasons.”

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the latest numbers come as attacks on shipping in the Red Sea earlier this year have had an impact “beyond earlier expectations” because of lack of sufficient capacity to make up for longer voyages to avoid the region. Political support for higher and broader tariffs on imported goods is expanding. And worries over lack of a new contract with East Coast/Gulf Coast dockworkers is shifting some cargo to West Coast ports. All of those issues drive up prices for shipping and, in turn, consumers.

“The risks to global trade growth continue to increase,” Hackett said. “We are in a volatile situation with multiple pressures on the movement of goods, underpinned by continued inflationary pressures.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.08 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 3% from April and up 7.5% year over year, and was the highest number since 2.26 million TEU in August 2022. (The total includes estimates for the ports of New York and New Jersey, which have not reported TEU counts for May.)

Ports have not yet reported June’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected that volume rose to 2.1 million TEU, up 14.5% year over year. July is forecast at 2.21 million TEU, up 15.5% year over year; August at 2.22 million TEU, up 13.5%; September at 2.1 million TEU, up 3.5%; October at 2.05 million TEU, down 0.5%, and November at 1.96 million TEU, up 3.5%.

The first half of 2024 is expected to total 12.04 million TEU, up 14.4% from the same period last year. Imports during 2023 totaled 22.3 million TEU, down 12.8% from 2022.

The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker . Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

Posted: July 9, 2024

Source: National Retail Federation (NRF)

“Consumers are continuing to spend more than last year, and retailers are stocking up to meet demand, especially as we head into peak shipping season,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The high level of imports expected over the next several months is an encouraging sign that retailers are confident in strong sales throughout the remainder of the year. Unfortunately, retailers are also facing supply chain challenges again, this time with congestion at overseas ports that are affecting operations and shipping rates.”

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said an expected seven-month string of import levels above 2 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — a level reached only twice since October 2022 — is partly due to changes in the annual “peak season” for shipping.

“Imports of containerized goods at U.S. ports are booming, with particularly strong growth on the West Coast,” Hackett said. “In the last couple of years, we have witnessed a flattened peak season that has stretched out the volume of imports over extra months versus the strong, consolidated surge seen in the past. Reasons range from retailers restocking following strong sales after the pandemic to trying to get ahead of increased tariffs on goods from China set to take effect in August and ensuring sufficient inventories for the holiday season amid strong consumer demand.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million TEU — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in April, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 4.6 percent from March and up 13.2 percent year-over-year, and was the highest number since 2.06 million TEU last October.

Ports have not yet reported May’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected that volume rose to 2.09 million TEU, up 8.3 percent year over year for the highest level since 2.26 million in August 2022. June is forecast to go even higher at 2.11 million TEU, up 15.2 percent year over year. July is forecast at 2.1 million TEU, up 9.5 percent; August at 2.17 million TEU, up 10.6 percent; September at 2.06 million TEU, up 1.7 percent, and October at 2.01 percent, down 2.3 percent from the same month last year.

The first half of 2024 is expected to total 12.1 million TEU, up 15 percent from the same period last year. Imports during 2023 totaled 22.3 million TEU, down 12.8 percent from 2022.

The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales — excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail — will grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023.

Posted: June 10, 2024

Source: The National Retail Federation (NRF)

“We are extremely disappointed that the United States Trade Representative and the Biden administration have chosen to double down on a failed and inflationary strategy by sustaining and expanding the Section 301 China tariffs. Maintaining these tariffs on consumer goods will increase costs that consumers pay on everyday products imported from China.

“As consumers continue to battle inflation, the last thing the administration should be doing is placing additional taxes on imported products that will be paid by U.S. importers and eventually U.S. consumers. The ongoing Section 301 China tariffs have not worked to force China to change its trade practices. We need a new strategy that will address the core issues and provide actual incentives for U.S. companies to shift their supply chains from China.

“We need new free trade agreements that focus on both market access and tariff reductions, and we need Congress to pass long-standing trade preference programs which remain expired. The U.S. economy needs real incentives — unlike those in the form of penal tariffs — to shift supply chains away from China. USTR must immediately renew the exclusions that are set to expire at the end of the month and open a fair and transparent exclusions process for all products covered by the tariffs.”

As an authority and voice for retail, NRF will continue to advocate for trade policies that promote economic growth.

Posted: May 14, 2024

Source: The National Retail Federation (NRF)

“We haven’t seen numbers this high for this many months in almost two years,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Regardless of what headlines about the economy might say, consumers are shopping and retailers are making sure they have merchandise on hand to meet demand. The supply chain has adjusted to recent disruptions and retailers will work to keep the flow of goods moving smoothly as the back-to-school and holiday seasons approach.”

“Even with a shift in spending from goods to services, U.S. consumers continue to spend on goods,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said, noting a recent downturn in containerized products like furniture, clothing and electronics. “We are still seeing a strong volume of goods flowing into ports despite global geopolitical turmoil, high interest rates and a slowdown in economic growth. There has been a surge of container imports on all three coasts, with the strongest being the Gulf, followed by the Pacific and the East Coast. The issue now is whether this surge will continue or level off.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.93 million TEU – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in March, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 1.4 percent from February but up 18.7 percent from March 2023, when Asian exports were slow after Lunar New Year shutdowns.

Ports have not yet reported April’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.96 million TEU, up 10 percent year-over-year. May is forecast at 2.06 million TEU, up 6.8 percent year-over-year to tie last October for the highest level since 2.26 million TEU in August 2022. June is forecast at 2.03 million TEU, up 10.7 percent from the same month last year; July at 2.02 million TEU, up 5.5 percent; August at 2.1 million TEU, up 7.1 percent, and September at 2.04 million TEU, up 0.5 percent.

Monthly volume has reached the 2 million TEU mark only twice since a 19-month streak that ended in October 2022.

The first half of 2024 is expected to total 11.9 million TEU, up 13 percent from the same period last year. Imports during 2023 totaled 22.3 million TEU, down 12.8 percent from 2022.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.

Posted: May 8, 2024

Source: The National Retail Federation (NRF)

“Retailers continue to work with their partners to mitigate the impact of disruptions from the Red Sea and Panama Canal restrictions,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Cargo has been rerouted and goods are arriving where they are needed and in time to meet consumer demand despite the ongoing challenges. Retailers have been impacted by costs and shipping delays, but they are working to minimize any impact on consumers.”

Carriers are avoiding the Red Sea and the initial surge in shipping prices and delays is subsiding, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. Some cargo that previously traveled from Asia via the Red Sea and Suez Canal across the Atlantic to the U.S. East Coast is now going around the Cape of Good Hope instead. There has been an uptick in cargo shipped across the Pacific to the West Coast. And some ships are traveling across the Pacific and through the Panama Canal to reach the East Coast.

“Despite the shipping disruptions cause by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, the global trade of consumer goods, industrial materials and bulk commodities continues to flow relatively smoothly,” Hackett said. “Fear of an inflationary impact due to the raised cost of transportation should be alleviated by now. Retailers and their carrier partners are adjusting to the re-routings and new schedules, which add new costs but those can be partially offset by not having to sail up the Red Sea and not having to pay Suez Canal transit costs. This will continue until there is a resolution and freedom of navigation through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.96 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in January, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 4.7% from December and up 8.6% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported February’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.9 million TEU, up 22.7% year over year. March is forecast at 1.77 million TEU, up 8.8% from last year. February is traditionally the slowest month because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia but the timing of the holiday and its impact on cargo and year-over-year comparisons varies. April is forecast at 1.84 million TEU, up 3.1% year over year; May at 1.94 million, up 0.5%; June also at 1.94 million TEU, up 5.7%, and July at 1.99 million TEU, up 3.8%

The first half of 2024 is expected to total 11.5 million TEU, up 7.8% from the same period last year. Imports during 2023 totaled 22.3 million TEU, down 12.8% from 2022.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker

Posted: March 8, 2024

Source: National Retail Federation (NRF)

“Only about 12 percent of U.S.-bound cargo comes through the Suez Canal but the situation in the Red Sea is bringing volatility and uncertainty that are being felt around the globe,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “U.S. retailers are working to mitigate the impact of delays and increased costs. However, the longer the disruptions occur, the bigger impact this could have. More needs to be done among partners and allies to ensure the safety of vessels and crews in order to avoid yet another year of supply chain disruption.”

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said carriers are using a surplus of capacity built up during the pandemic to ease the impact as voyages are diverted around the Cape of Good Hope or to the U.S. West Coast, and that improvements are already being seen.

“The shipping industry has rapidly adjusted by adding extra vessels to its networks, and has returned to normal weekly ship arrivals,” Hackett said. “Service from Asia to the U.S. East Coast is working well and the dramatic rise in freight rates is showing signs of easing, with pressure from shippers likely to quickly bring these down.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.87 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in December, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 1 percent from November but up 8.3 percent year-over-year. December’s results brought 2023 to 22.3 million TEU, down 12.8 percent from 2022.

Ports have not yet reported January’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.81 million TEU, up 0.3 percent year over year. February is forecast at 1.86 million TEU, up 20.4 percent year over year, and March is forecast at 1.71 million TEU, up 5.5 percent from last year. February is traditionally the slowest month because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia but the timing of the holiday and its impact on cargo and year-over-year comparisons varies. April is forecast at 1.83 million TEU, up 2.6 percent year over year; May at 1.94 million, up 0.3 percent, and June at 1.93 million TEU, up 5.5 percent.

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2024 to 11.1 million TEU, up 5.3 percent from the same period last year.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker

Posted: February 9, 2024

Source: National Retail Federation (NRF)

“We originally thought peak season would come in August but imports kept growing in September and again in October,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Whether it was merchandise for retailers or cargo for other businesses, that’s a good sign for the economy and for the holiday shopping season. NRF expects record-setting holiday sales this year and retailers are well-stocked to meet consumer demand.”

NRF is forecasting that 2023 holiday sales will increase between 3 and 4 percent over last year, in line with pre-pandemic growth rates, and will hit a record-setting total between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.

“The U.S. economy appears to be on a sustainable growth path as consumer demand remains buoyant,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said, noting solid Black Friday weekend sales, strong corporate profits and continued growth of gross domestic product. “It would be natural to assume that any thought of a recession is behind us, but a significant number of economists and politicians remain skeptical. As always, time will tell.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled a higher-than-expected 2.05 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in October, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 1.3 percent from September and up 2.5 percent from October 2022 for the first year-over-year increase since June 2022.

By topping September’s 2.03 million TEU, October should turn out to be the peak of the holiday shipping season. With 1.96 million TEU, August had originally been expected to be the peak month. The peak historically came in October but has occurred in August or sooner for seven of the past 10 years after a series of port labor disputes prompted retailers to bring merchandise into the country early to avoid potential disruptions near the holidays. 2020 was the most recent year that shipping peaked in October.

Ports have not yet reported November numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.96 million TEU, up 10.5 percent year over year. December is forecast at 1.93 million TEU, up 11.5 percent year over year.

Those numbers would bring 2023 to 22.4 million TEU, down 12.4 percent from last year. Imports during 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2 percent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.

Year-over-year volume growth each month is expected to continue in 2024, with January forecast at 1.93 million TEU, up 6.6 percent year over year. February — historically the slowest month because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia — is forecast at 1.77 million TEU, up 14.5 percent year-over-year. March is forecast at 1.75 million TEU, up 7.7 percent year-over-year, and April at 1.8 million TEU, up 1 percent.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker

Posted: December 10, 2023

Source: The National Retail Federation (NRF)

“Retailers expect record-setting sales during the holiday sales season this year, and they have their shelves stocked to meet demand whether it’s in stores or at distribution centers to fulfill online orders,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Port, railroad and delivery service labor contract issues that caused worries earlier in the year are behind us, and the supply chain is running smoothly. Shoppers should have no trouble finding what they want this year.”

NRF is forecasting record holiday sales and growth between 3% and 4% over last year. That’s in line with pre-pandemic holiday growth rates. And the expected total of between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion would easily top the record of $929.5 billion set last year.

Even as imports wind down for the year, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said economic conditions in the United States are better than Europe and Asia. A decline in consumer demand brought on by recessions in both regions has left shipping companies with excess capacity on new vessels built in response to the cargo surge of the past few years.

“U.S. consumers stand out in the global economy as they continue to benefit from job and wage growth and are still able to dip into savings accumulated during the pandemic,” Hackett said. “While U.S. consumers are doing well, a global recession in cargo trade could potentially affect the supply chain.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.03 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in September, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 0.2% from the same time last year but up 3.5% from August. It was the first time imports have reached the 2 million TEU mark since October 2022. And by topping August’s 1.96 million TEU, it became the busiest month of the year so far and should go down as the peak of the holiday shipping season.

Ports have not yet reported October numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.92 million TEU, down 4.2% year over year. November is forecast at 1.88 million TEU, a 5.8% increase from the same time last year that would be the first year-over-year gain since June 2022. December is forecast at 1.85 million TEU, up 6.8% year over year.

Those numbers would bring 2023 to 22.1 million TEU, down 13.5% from last year. Imports during 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2% from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.

January 2024 is forecast at 1.87 million, TEU, up 3.7% year over year, while February – historically the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia – is forecast at 1.72 million TEU, up 11.1% year over year. March is forecast at 1.73 million TEU, up 6.5% year over year.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.

Posted: November 8, 2023

Source: National Retail Federation (NRF)

Policymakers are expressing a growing interest in changing trade policy and practices between the United States and China, including the potential removal of China’s PNTR status. PNTR is a legal status that extends to China the same tariff rates applied to other U.S. trading partners. Congress approved China’s PNTR status in 2000 when it officially joined the World Trade Organization.

NRF and other industry organizations are examining the potential effect this would have on businesses, consumers and the economy. Eliminating China’s PNTR status would subject imports from China — both finished goods and inputs to production — to significantly higher tariff rates.

“Even though significant efforts have been made in recent years to diversify sourcing, China continues to play an important role in the supply chain of many retailers and other global industries, from sourcing raw materials to manufacturing and production,” NRF Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “It would be impossible for American families to escape the higher costs from dramatic tariff increases on necessities such as apparel, footwear, furniture, appliances and toys.”

Among the key findings:

• Higher U.S. tariffs on imports from China resulting from the revocation of PNTR for China would cost American consumers $31 billion, or $240 per household, in higher prices for widely used products.
• The prices of toys would increase by more than 21 percent, or $93 per household.
• The prices of other consumer goods would rise as well: Household appliances by nearly 7 percent; shoes by nearly 5 percent; furniture by 4 percent; and apparel by nearly 2 percent.
• Low-income households, which spend greater shares of their incomes on these products than high-income households, would be hit the hardest.
• These cost increases would negatively impact the effort to lower inflation for households overall.

View the “Estimated Impacts of Changes to China’s Tariff Status: Toys, Furniture, Apparel, Household Appliances and Footwear”.

As an authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry and consumers through reports such as this. The study was commissioned by NRF and prepared by Trade Partnership Worldwide LLC.

Posted: October 12, 2023

Source: The National Retail Federation (NRF)